Li Yining: I believe China’s Economy is Optimistic in 2014

February 11, 2014 Source:

Li Yining, one of the most famous Chinese economist and Chairman of Academic Committee of China Economic Forum

Marco • Policy Li Yining’s suggestions for 2014: Be plain living and confident, and invest appropriately

On January 20th, China’s National Bureau of Statistics published that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2013 is 7.7%, which is the value of the previous year and is also in line with that many economists had forecast.

How to sum up the just past 2013? Which element should be paid attention to in China’s economy development of 2014? And what kind of trends will be presented?

Recently, Li Yining, one of the most Chinese economist and Chairman of Academic Committee of China Economic Forum, accepts the interview of China Economy Weekly (Ceweekly). “I believe China’s economy is optimistic in 2014”, says Li Yining.

By Xie Wei, China Economy Weekly, Beijing

Ceweekly: How would you rate China’s economy development in 2013? In 2014 or even the next few years, what kind of risks and challenges in economy will China meet, according to your prediction?

Li Yining: I have a judgment for 2013 that it is actually a difficult year. In the beginning of 2013, the basic situation is the world’s economy is in a slightly better trend, but the crisis continues. So, it is no picnic for us to take this step.

During the two sessions of 2013, people are still worried about the situation of economy, whether it will decline. While the economic signal is “steady for the better” when comes to the third quarter, which make us be confident. And this is achieved through hard work.

However, the economic situation will not transit to smooth so soon. What will be new about international situation? Will the crisis in Euro zone continue? What kind of change will be in the US on the policies? Will the Quantitative Easing Policy be abandoned? All these are still unknown and need to be observed.

There is still one thing should be sure that the reform will be accelerated in 2014, and all over China will strive for the national target put forward in Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPCC. We should be confident. Lack of confidence is the most powerful weapon to destroy a country. Do not listen to the bad-mouthing argument of China outside. They do not grasp the real situation of our country.

The confidence to our country is from our practice. We can build confidence as long as we understand clearly about China’s practice. Meanwhile, we should adhere to the spirit of hard work, which is long-standing and supports us on our belief.

Without hard working spirit, we are easy to slack off, which is a serious problem, for example, it will cause personal complacency with lots of social welfare. So, the raise of the level of welfare should be step by step. Relieve that need relief, and never develop a dependency on welfare.

If we have established such a faith among the whole nation, I believe China’s economy is optimistic in 2014.

Ceweekly: What about your judgment for the growth of China’s economy in 2014? Investment, consumption and exports, which element will play a more important role in 2014?

Li Yining: According to the present situation, it is unrealistic to maintain the growth of economy completely depending on consumption. Since the reform of the social security system is still in progress, people have menace for the future and are concerned about money. Secondly, Chinese people emphasize on saving in tradition and do not spend deposit. It is not a bad thing for people to emphasize on saving. In the case of unimplemented social security, it is necessary to make household savings for health care, education and other issues.

Therefore, we should maintain the spirit of plain living. Since China has caught up with the development of other countries for so many years in such a short time, shouldn’t we work harder? Moreover, for technical developments, China is still inferior to other countries.

For the investment, there are two focal points. Firstly, invest appropriately. Or, it could be overcapacity.

Secondly, we should pay attention to three points for future investment: firstly, encourage investments related to the innovation of foundation and encourage the development of new industries. Secondly, encourage private capital investments into the market and into the reform of state-owned enterprises. Thirdly, encourage the investments in infrastructure and strengthen the construction of the major facilities including transport and water conservancy, environmental protection and people’s livelihood. To grasp the three points, I believe, consumption and investment promoting economic development together can be achieved.

(Original Title — Li Yining: Do not listen to the bad-mouthing argument outside, it is optimistic in 2014)

Translated by Zoe Wang